QIANHE(603027) Huaan Securities·2024-10-31 12:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is undergoing active reforms, and the results are anticipated to show improvement. The product and channel adjustments are nearing completion, with expectations to return to a growth trend. The long-term trend towards zero additives remains unchanged, and there is significant growth potential nationwide. Profitability is expected to improve as cost benefits continue to be realized and scale effects enhance, with net profit margins having substantial room for improvement compared to peers [1][5]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 revenue was 700 million yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 100 million yuan, down 22.6%. For the first three quarters, revenue totaled 2.29 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.9%, and net profit was 350 million yuan, down 9.2% [1]. - Q3 gross margin increased by 0.7 percentage points to 37.5%, benefiting from lower raw material costs. The sales, management, and R&D expense ratios changed by +3.0 percentage points, -0.7 percentage points, and +0.3 percentage points respectively, with the net profit margin decreasing by 1.9 percentage points to 14.4% [1][4]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 3.27 billion yuan, 3.67 billion yuan, and 4.08 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.9%, 12.2%, and 11.2% respectively. Net profit forecasts are 510 million yuan, 580 million yuan, and 650 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -4.1%, +14.2%, and +12.2% respectively [4][5]. Segment Analysis - Revenue by product category in Q3 showed soy sauce and vinegar revenues of 435 million yuan and 85 million yuan, down 13.8% and 15.7% year-on-year respectively, impacted by high base effects and product adjustments. The company has completed product adjustments, and channel inventory is at a low level, with normal shipping resuming in September [1]. - Revenue by region in Q3 was 165 million yuan (East), 56 million yuan (South), 92 million yuan (Central), 110 million yuan (North), and 260 million yuan (West), with year-on-year changes of -8.4%, 0%, -21%, -17.7%, and -12% respectively, indicating resilience in the South [1].