STO(002468) 华创证券·2024-10-31 12:21Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [17]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant year-on-year revenue growth of 195% in net profit for the first three quarters, with a total revenue of 334.9 billion and a net profit of 6.52 billion, reflecting a 14.2% increase in revenue compared to the previous year [1][2]. - The report highlights a positive cycle of volume, cost, and profit, suggesting that the company is experiencing a recovery phase with improved operational efficiency and profitability [1][6]. - The company achieved a free cash flow of 500 million in 2023, marking the first positive cash flow since 2018, indicating a restoration of its financial health [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit: In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 119.2 billion, a 16.3% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.15 billion, up 7760.9% from the previous year [1][7]. - Volume Growth: The company’s business volume growth rate for the first three quarters was 30.8%, outperforming competitors and the industry average [1][7]. - Earnings Forecast: The earnings forecast for 2024-2026 has been revised upwards to 9 billion, 14 billion, and 17 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.59, 0.92, and 1.13 [1][2]. Valuation and Target Price - The target price for the company is set at 13.74, representing a 24% upside from the current price of 11.06 [3][1]. - The report anticipates that the company will maintain a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of at least 15 times by 2025, aligning with industry recovery trends [1][2].