GED(000539) 国泰君安·2024-10-31 12:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [2] Core Views - The report indicates that the company's performance in Q3 2024 was below expectations, with a focus on the anticipated implementation of the Guangdong long-term electricity price [3][8] - The current electricity pricing mechanism does not adequately reflect the supporting and regulating value of thermal power, awaiting the long-term electricity price in Guangdong [8] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's revenue was 42.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.9%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.47 billion yuan, down 15.0% [8] - In Q3 2024, revenue was 16.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 2.4%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 560 million yuan, down 35.2% [8] - The gross profit for Q3 2024 was 2.40 billion yuan, a decrease of 29.0% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 14.6%, down 5.5 percentage points year-on-year [8] Electricity Generation and Pricing - The company's electricity generation volume increased by 4.7% year-on-year in Q3 2024, with total on-grid electricity of 33.24 billion kWh [8] - The average on-grid electricity price in Q3 2024 was 0.521 yuan/kWh, a decrease of 8.4% year-on-year [8] Future Outlook - The company is steadily advancing its construction projects, with a total installed capacity of 8.0 GW for coal power, 2.7 GW for gas power, 0.6 GW for wind power, and 4.0 GW for solar power as of the end of Q3 2024 [8] - The company has a project reserve of approximately 2.0 GW, with cash payments for fixed assets and other long-term assets amounting to 3.33 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 35.2% [8] Valuation and Target Price - The target price has been adjusted to 5.76 yuan from the previous 6.35 yuan, based on a 2025 PE valuation of 18 times, considering the company's substantial installed capacity growth [8]