美的集团2024Q3点评：业绩稳健跑赢行业

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Midea Group is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Midea Group's Q3 2024 performance report shows revenue of 101.70 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.05%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.89 billion yuan, up 14.86% year-on-year [1] - The company is expected to continue outperforming the industry, with strong growth in its consumer (2C) and business (2B) segments [1] - The report indicates that Midea's Q3 gross margin is 26.04%, with a net margin of 10.71%, reflecting stable profitability despite cost pressures [1] Revenue Analysis - The 2C smart home business is projected to grow by 8% in Q3, outperforming the industry [1] - For air conditioning, a year-on-year growth of 6% is expected, with domestic sales showing slight growth and exports continuing double-digit growth [1] - The refrigerator and washing machine segments are anticipated to see low double-digit growth, with both domestic and international sales accelerating compared to Q2 [1] - The 2B business segment is expected to maintain small single-digit growth, with the smart building technology business projected to grow by 4% [1] Profitability Analysis - The report highlights that Midea Group's overall profitability remains stable, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 26.78 billion yuan in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 78% [1] - The report notes that the company's contract liabilities reached a new high of 37.5 billion yuan, indicating strong future revenue potential [1] Financial Forecast - The revenue forecast for Midea Group for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 407.31 billion yuan, 438.36 billion yuan, and 470.91 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 9.0%, 7.6%, and 7.4% respectively [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 38.37 billion yuan, 43.31 billion yuan, and 46.85 billion yuan for the same period, with corresponding growth rates of 13.8%, 12.9%, and 8.2% [2]