China Life(601628) 国泰君安·2024-10-31 12:27Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price of CNY 60.71 per share, corresponding to a 2024 P/EV of 1.10x [3][7] Core Views - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 173.2% YoY, driven by a significant improvement in investment income due to the recovery of the equity market [5][7] - The New Business Value (NBV) met expectations, with a YoY increase of 25.1% in the first three quarters of 2024, supported by stable agent numbers and improved quality [7] - The investment asset scale grew steadily, reaching CNY 6.4 trillion by the end of Q3 2024, up 12.3% from the beginning of the year, with a total investment yield of 5.38% in the first three quarters, up 2.57 percentage points YoY [7] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2024E is projected to be CNY 445,527 million, a 29% increase from 2023A, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to reach CNY 112,417 million, a 143% increase YoY [8] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024E is forecasted at CNY 3.98, with a return on equity (ROE) of 20% [8] - The company's total investment yield for 2024E is expected to be 6.5%, with a net investment yield of 3.6% [11] Business Highlights - The individual insurance channel achieved stable growth in agent numbers, with 641,000 agents by the end of Q3 2024, up 1.1% from the beginning of the year, and a 17.7% YoY increase in monthly per capita first-year premium [7] - The proportion of first-year premium with a term of 10 years or more reached 46.4% in the first three quarters of 2024, up 2.6 percentage points from the end of the first half [7] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/E ratio for 2024E is 10.65x, with a P/B ratio of 2.12x and a P/EV ratio of 0.77x [12] - The embedded value per share for 2024E is projected to be CNY 54.8, with a dividend yield of 1.2% [12]