非银行金融行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 股票投资持续增长，重视回调后的保险板 块 2025 年四季度保险行业偿付能力及资金运用点评 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 政策不及预期、资本市场波动加大、居民财富增长不及预期、长端利率下行超预期、险 企改革不及预期 国家/地区 中国 行业 非银行金融行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 06 日 张凯烽 执业证书编号：S0860526020002 zhangkaifeng@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 看好（维持） ⚫ 2025 年人身险公司偿付能力走弱，资本补充需求或将提速，财产险公司偿付能力稳 中略升。人身险行业偿付能力充足率在 2025 年下半年有所回撤，人身险公司综合/ 核心偿付能力充足率从 25Q1 的 196.6%/ 132.8%下滑至 25Q4 的 169.3%/ 115.0%，仍显著高于"偿二代"二期监管规定的 100%和 50%刚性红线，但下半年 核心数据下行近 20 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性或完整性 亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致 的任何損失承擔任何責任。 中 國 人 壽 保 險 股 份 有 限 公 司 China Life Insurance Company Limited ( ) 於 中 華 人 民 共 和 國 註 冊 成 立 之 股 份 有 限 公 司 (股份代號：2628) 董事會會議通告 中國人壽保險股份有限公司(「本公司」)董事會(「董事會」)茲通告謹定於 2026 年 3 月 25 日(星期三)舉行董事會會議，以考慮及通過本公司截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日止年度之末期業績，以及建議派付末期股息，並處理任何其他事項。 獨立非執行董事： 香港，2026 年 3 月 6 日 於本公告日期，本公司董事會由以下人士組成： 執行董事： 非執行董事： 蔡希良、利明光、劉暉、阮琦 胡錦、胡容、牛凱龍 林志權、翟海濤、陳潔、盧鋒 承董事會命 中國人壽保險股份有限公司 邢家維 公司秘書 ...

於 中 華 人 民 共 和 國 註 冊 成 立 之 股 份 有 限 公 司 (股份代號：2628) 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性或完整性 亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致 的任何損失承擔任何責任。 中 國 人 壽 保 險 股 份 有 限 公 司 China Life Insurance Company Limited ( ) 承董事會命 中國人壽保險股份有限公司 邢家維 公司秘書 蔡希良、利明光、劉暉、阮琦 胡錦、胡容、牛凱龍 林志權、翟海濤、陳潔、盧鋒 董事會會議通告 獨立非執行董事： 中國人壽保險股份有限公司(「本公司」)董事會(「董事會」)茲通告謹定於 2026 年 3 月 25 日(星期三)舉行董事會會議，以考慮及通過本公司截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日止年度之末期業績，以及建議派付末期股息，並處理任何其他事項。 香港，2026 年 3 月 6 日 於本公告日期，本公司董事會由以下人士組成： 執行董事： 非執行董事： ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the macroeconomic outlook and government policies impacting various sectors, particularly focusing on the construction, energy, and real estate industries. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **GDP Growth Target**: The GDP growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5%-5.0%, aligning with expectations. However, there is a notable gap in fiscal spending versus debt increase, necessitating reliance on tax revenue recovery and central government support for local tax sources [1][2][3]. 2. **Dual Carbon Policy**: The dual carbon policy has shifted from "energy consumption control" to "carbon emission control," enhancing quantitative constraints. This is expected to benefit sectors like carbon accounting software, carbon trading, smart grids, and hydrogen energy [1][4]. 3. **Coal Sector Outlook**: The coal sector is viewed as having a "second growth curve," driven by AI-related electricity demand growth, which offsets dual carbon pressures. Domestic and import supply reductions are anticipated, with coal prices expected to rise from a bottoming phase, suggesting over 50% upside potential for coal stocks [1][20][21]. 4. **Debt Market Expectations**: The bond market has already priced in the subdued fiscal expectations, with a short-term forecast for 10-year government bond yields to retreat to 1.85%-1.9%. There remains room for interest rate cuts throughout the year [1][12][14]. 5. **Construction and Building Materials**: The focus is on major projects under the "15th Five-Year Plan," with significant investment opportunities in western development, major canals, and high-standard farmland construction. The construction materials sector is nearing a profitability inflection point, with leading companies like Oriental Yuhong expected to benefit [1][22][26]. 6. **Consumer Sector Trends**: Consumer spending is expected to show a "high-low" rhythm, with potential weakness in Q2. Opportunities in high-end travel and service consumption are highlighted, particularly with the expansion of spring break trials [2][15]. 7. **Investment Directions**: The report emphasizes investment in new infrastructure, urbanization, and livelihood improvements, with a focus on projects like major railways and hydropower. The total investment in these areas is projected to exceed 8 trillion yuan [22][24]. 8. **Real Estate Policy Changes**: The real estate sector's focus has shifted from risk prevention to stabilizing the market, with a new emphasis on a "people-centered" approach. The reform of housing provident funds is highlighted as a key support mechanism [27][30][31]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Tax Revenue Recovery**: The anticipated recovery in tax revenue due to price increases and economic expansion is crucial for addressing the fiscal gap [2][3]. 2. **AI and Energy Demand**: The demand for coal is expected to increase due to AI-driven electricity needs, indicating a shift in energy consumption patterns [20]. 3. **Urban Renewal Initiatives**: The report outlines significant urban renewal projects, with a focus on old neighborhood renovations and infrastructure safety, potentially driving demand for construction materials [23][34]. 4. **Green Energy Initiatives**: The introduction of "green fuels" and a multi-energy approach is noted, with major state-owned enterprises involved in clean energy projects [24]. 5. **Market Sentiment**: The overall market sentiment reflects cautious optimism, with expectations for gradual recovery in various sectors, particularly in construction and real estate [1][10][12]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the macroeconomic environment and sector-specific developments that may influence investment strategies moving forward.

大型保险央企注资跟踪：推迟至 2027 年后，配合新准则 与偿二代三期实施结果 评级： 增持（维持） 分析师：葛玉翔 执业证书编号：S0740525040002 Email：geyx01@zts.com.cn 分析师：蒋峤 执业证书编号：S0740517090005 Email：jiangqiao@zts.com.cn | 上市公司数 | 5 | | --- | --- | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 32,974.79 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 32,974.79 | 重回起涨点，估值性价比再现》 2026-03-04 2、《中小保险公司风险化解观察与 国根基》2026-03-02 险资金运用分析》2026-02-15 事件： 2026 年《政府工作报告》在"继续实施更加积极的财政政策"章节提出"拟发 行特别国债 3000 亿元，支持国有大型商业银行补充资本"，但未提及对国有大型商 业保险公司的注资事宜。我们预计国有大型险资注资将至少推迟至 2027 年，虽迟但 不会缺席。我们认为将缓解投资者资本补充对财务指标稀释的压力。 基本状况 行业-市场走势对比 2025 年 5 月国新办发布会金监总局曾提出 ...

将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 以下文章来源于金融八卦女频道 ，作者兴华 金融八卦女频道 . 有深度、有温度、有态度，在这里读懂财富。 险资扫货购物中心，不动产又香了？ 作者丨 兴华 来源丨 金融八卦女频道 险资又来当风向标了，在商业不动产领域砸钱，买楼出租当包租公。 去年险资大幅增加了权益类投资，就是炒股，结构是哑铃状：一头使劲配红利，大量买银行，后来银行买不动了买同行，保险公司互相买；另一头配了 科技股，可以说是稳健收益和摸奖活动两不误。 最近，一则超80亿元的商业地产交易"引燃"大宗资产交易市场。人们才发现，险资已经开始转入商业不动产领域了。 据八妹不完全统计， 2025年下半年以来，布局商业不动产的险企已经有十余家，包括泰康人寿、友邦人寿以及中邮人寿等。 这释放出什么信号？ 险资扫货购物中心，不动产又香了？ 最近，险资又开始投钱买楼当包租公了。 5、瑞安房地产与中国人寿信托、大家保险及宏利金融成立合营企业，收购上海黄浦区办公及商业资产99%股权，总建面约7.9万平方米。 2026年2月6日，天津兰沁股权投资合伙企业（有限合伙）在天津滨海高新区完成注册，出资规模86.01亿元，该基金由泰康 ...

Group 1 - The insurance stocks that had been declining have rebounded, with AIA Group rising over 5% [1] - China Reinsurance and Yunfeng Financial both increased by over 4% [1] - China Pacific Insurance rose by 3.7%, while China Life, New China Life, and ZhongAn Online gained over 2% [1] - China People's Insurance, China Property & Casualty Insurance, Sunshine Insurance, China Life Insurance, and Ping An Insurance all saw increases of over 1% [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the non-bank financial sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [3]. Core Insights - The Chinese insurance industry has shown rapid growth, with total investment assets reaching 38.5 trillion yuan by the end of Q4 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 15.7% [20][21]. - The allocation of investment assets has shifted significantly towards bonds, which increased from 33.3% in Q1 2019 to 50.4% in Q4 2025, while the share of stocks and funds rose from 12.4% to 15.4% during the same period [26][20]. - The performance of insurance companies is highly sensitive to fluctuations in equity markets and interest rates, with both static and dynamic impacts on their financial performance [36]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of the Insurance Industry Investment Status - The insurance industry has maintained a compound annual growth rate of 18.6% in investment assets from 2004 to 2025, with a notable recovery in growth rates following a low point in 2021 [20]. - The proportion of investment assets allocated to life insurance companies has remained around 90% since 2022, indicating their dominance in the market [21]. 2. Sensitivity Analysis of Equity Market Upturn - A 10% increase in equity investment prices could lead to an average pre-tax profit increase of 38.7%, with China Pacific Insurance showing the highest sensitivity at 83.4% [2]. - If equity investment prices rise by 10% alongside a 10% increase in equity allocation, the average pre-tax profit could increase by 81.2%, with China Pacific Insurance again leading at 175.2% [2]. 3. Sensitivity Analysis of Interest Rate Increases - A 50 basis point increase in market interest rates could result in an average pre-tax profit increase of 0.7%, with China Life and China Pacific showing significant positive elasticity [2][3]. 4. Economic Assumption Sensitivity Analysis - An increase in investment return rates and risk discount rates by 50 basis points could enhance new business value by an average of 35%, with China Life and New China Life showing the highest sensitivity [12]. 5. Liability Cost Analysis - The average new policy liability cost is estimated at 2.76%, with Ping An and China Life having the lowest costs [12]. - The report suggests that effective management of liability costs will enhance the long-term profitability of insurance companies [12]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights that the insurance sector is currently undervalued and suggests a systematic allocation of investments in this sector due to its high beta elasticity and resilience [12].

证券研究报告 存款迁移，非银负债和资产两端受益 ——非银金融行业2026年春季投资策略 姓名 高超（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520050001 邮箱：gaochao1@kysec.cn 姓名 卢崑（分析师） 证书编号： S0790524040002 邮箱： lukun@kysec.cn 姓名 张恩琦（联系人） 证书编号：S0790125080012 邮箱：zhangenqi@kysec.cn 2026年3月5日 核心观点 保险：负债和资产端双轮驱动，权益弹性突出 券商：景气度有望延续，估值仍在低位，看好板块战略性增配机会 风险提示：股市波动对券商和保险盈利带来不确定影响；保险负债端增长不及预期；券商财富管理和资产管理利润增长不及预期。 负债端看：充分受益于居民存款迁移，分红险在牛市预期加持下性价比凸显，叠加低基数，2026年开年个险渠道新单增速向好；银保渠道 有望延续2025年的较高增长。分红险占比持续提升，刚性负债成本回落利好险企估值抬升。 资产端看：长端利率企稳、权益市场向好利于净资产和险企盈利表现。 春节假期前后，保险H和A股标的调整较明显。除了2026年开年前后保险板块有所抢跑上涨带来高基数外（ ...

保险行业深度研究报告 挪储背景下的分红险变革 重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级 | | | | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | PB（倍） | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 简称 | 代码 | 股价（元） 2025E | | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | | | 中国太保 | 601601.SH | 38.85 | 5.68 | 6.15 | 6.81 | 6.85 | 6.32 | 5.71 | 1.23 | 推荐 | | 中国平安 | 601318.SH | 61.79 | 8.02 | 8.83 | 9.46 | 7.71 | 7.00 | 6.53 | 1.07 | 强推 | | 中国人保 | 601319.SH | 8.42 | 1.28 | 1.36 | 1.45 | 6.56 | 6.19 | 5.79 | 1.16 | 推荐 | | 中国人寿 | 601628.SH | 42.61 | 6.3 ...