HDPI(600027) 国泰君安·2024-10-31 12:28Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price of 7.88 CNY [3][10] Core Views - The company's 3Q24 performance showed steady growth, with revenue of 31.6 billion CNY, up 1.1% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.93 billion CNY, up 0.9% YoY [10] - The company plans to issue shares and pay cash to acquire coastal thermal power assets from its parent group, with a total consideration of 7.17 billion CNY [2][10] - The acquisition includes approximately 16.0 GW of conventional energy assets, with coal-fired capacity of 7.6 GW and gas-fired capacity of 8.4 GW [10] Financial Performance - 1~3Q24 revenue was 84.8 billion CNY, down 6.5% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.16 billion CNY, up 14.6% YoY [10] - 3Q24 gross profit was 3.13 billion CNY, up 2.2% YoY, with a gross margin of 9.9%, up 0.1 ppts YoY and 1.1 ppts QoQ [10] - 3Q24 electricity generation was 63.0 billion kWh, up 3.2% YoY, with coal-fired generation at 53.4 billion kWh, up 16.7% YoY [10] - The average on-grid tariff in 3Q24 was 0.511 CNY/kWh, up 1.6% YoY and 0.1% QoQ [10] Asset Acquisition Details - The acquisition involves issuing 680 million shares at 5.05 CNY per share, accounting for 6.2% of the total share capital post-acquisition [10] - The total consideration of 7.17 billion CNY implies a PB multiple of 1.6x and a PE multiple of 13.5x based on 2023 net profit of 530 million CNY [10] - The acquired assets represent 27.2% of the company's installed capacity as of 1H24 and 25.1% of the parent group's non-listed conventional energy capacity as of 2023 [10] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow to 124.9 billion CNY in 2024, 126.2 billion CNY in 2025, and 125.6 billion CNY in 2026 [9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 6.44 billion CNY in 2024, 6.53 billion CNY in 2025, and 6.99 billion CNY in 2026 [9] - EPS is projected to be 0.63 CNY in 2024, 0.64 CNY in 2025, and 0.69 CNY in 2026 [10] Valuation Metrics - The current P/E ratio is 13.05x for 2023, expected to decrease to 9.16x in 2024 and 8.45x in 2026 [9] - The current P/B ratio is 0.85x, with a target P/B ratio of 0.81x in 2024 [9] - The dividend yield is expected to increase from 2.6% in 2023 to 5.3% in 2026 [9]