XfmGroup(603225) 国海证券·2024-10-31 12:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance was impacted by fluctuating crude oil prices, leading to a decline in profitability, but cash flow improved significantly [2] - Revenue for Q3 2024 reached 17,924 million yuan, up 11.91% YoY and 6.56% QoQ, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 141 million yuan, down 65.41% YoY and 57.23% QoQ [3] - The company's cash flow from operating activities in Q3 2024 surged to 4,745 million yuan, showing significant YoY and QoQ growth [3] - The report expects the company's performance to improve in Q4 2024 due to seasonal demand from e-commerce festivals and Christmas orders [3] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 49,197 million yuan, up 11.31% YoY, but net profit attributable to shareholders fell 15.91% YoY to 746 million yuan [2] - Gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 4.92%, down 2.72 percentage points YoY and 1.19 percentage points QoQ [3] - Net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 0.79%, down 1.75 percentage points YoY and 1.17 percentage points QoQ [3] - The company's POY sales volume in Q3 2024 increased 18.83% QoQ to 1,479,300 tons, but the average price fell 3.19% QoQ to 6,690.11 yuan/ton [3] Industry and Market Position - The company is a leading player in the domestic polyester filament industry, with a market share of over 12% in the civilian polyester filament sector [5] - As of 2023, the company's polyester filament production capacity reached 7.4 million tons, ranking second in the domestic market [5] - The company has a vertically integrated production chain from PTA to polyester and spinning, enhancing its competitive advantage [5] - The polyester filament industry is expected to see further consolidation, with large enterprises leveraging scale and technological advantages to expand [4] Future Outlook - The report forecasts the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 63,651 million yuan, 70,854 million yuan, and 77,478 million yuan, respectively [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1,083 million yuan, 1,447 million yuan, and 1,711 million yuan for 2024-2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16x, 12x, and 10x [6] - The company plans to optimize its product structure and enhance competitiveness, focusing on differentiated filament production in the next 1-2 years [5] - The polyester fiber industry is expected to benefit from domestic economic stabilization policies, driving demand growth [6]