指南针2024年三季报点评：三季报承压，交投活跃看好业绩反转

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, with a target price adjusted to 110.00 CNY, up from a previous forecast of 48.60 CNY [4][8]. Core Views - The company's revenue growth is attributed to the rapid development of its securities business, while profit decline is primarily due to decreased revenue from financial information services and increased sales expenses. The market is currently active, and there is optimism for a performance rebound [3][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the adjusted revenue (including investment business income) is reported at 87.5 million CNY, with a net profit of -11 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year change of -19.62% and -171.18%, respectively, which is below expectations [8]. - The company’s revenue increased year-on-year, mainly driven by the rapid growth of its securities brokerage and proprietary trading businesses, with net commission income reaching 135 million CNY, up 125.92% year-on-year, and net interest income at 46 million CNY, up 92.70% [8]. Market Outlook - The report indicates that the market is showing signs of recovery, with the Wande All A Index rising 28% from September 24 to October 30, and daily stock trading volume reaching 2 trillion CNY, which is expected to benefit both the financial information services and securities businesses [8]. - The company is in the process of issuing stock to specific investors, which is currently under review by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and the progress has been slower than expected due to various factors [8]. Financial Projections - The net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 104 million CNY, 408 million CNY, and 588 million CNY, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.26 CNY, 1.00 CNY, and 1.44 CNY [8][9]. - The report highlights a significant increase in sales expenses, which rose by 25% year-on-year to 479 million CNY in Q3 2024, attributed to expanded brand promotion and customer acquisition efforts [8].