Sinotruk Jinan Truck (SZ:000951) Minsheng Securities·2024-10-31 13:44Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 16.00 CNY, corresponding to a PE ratio of 14/12/10 for the years 2024-2026 [1][3]. Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with a revenue of 33.587 billion CNY for the first three quarters, up 9.18% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 934 million CNY, up 42.48% year-on-year [1]. - The implementation of the old-for-new policy is expected to boost demand in Q4 2024, with potential to drive approximately 72,000 new heavy truck purchases based on a 20% replacement demand assumption [1]. - The company is positioned as a leader in heavy truck exports, maintaining a market share of 37.9% in Q3 2024, despite a slight decline in export volume due to external tax policies [1]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company are 47.301 billion CNY in 2024, 55.101 billion CNY in 2025, and 63.101 billion CNY in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 1.309 billion CNY, 1.564 billion CNY, and 1.880 billion CNY respectively [2][4]. - The expected EPS for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.11 CNY, 1.33 CNY, and 1.60 CNY respectively, indicating a strong growth trajectory [2][4]. - The report highlights a significant increase in net profit growth rates, projecting 405.5% in 2024, 21.1% in 2025, and 19.5% in 2026 [2][4].