牧原股份：业绩大增，高分红回报股东

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Muyuan Foods (牧原股份) [2][6] Core Views - The company reported significant growth in performance, with a revenue of 96.775 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.64%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.481 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [4] - The company has a strong dividend policy, distributing 8.31 yuan per 10 shares, totaling over 4.5 billion yuan, which accounts for 40.06% of the net profit for the first three quarters [4] - The company benefits from a favorable cost structure, with a stable growth in pig production and a significant increase in pig prices, leading to substantial profitability in its pig farming business [5] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Latest closing price: 43.90 yuan - Total shares / circulating shares: 5.465 billion / 3.811 billion - Total market value / circulating market value: 239.9 billion / 167.3 billion - 52-week high / low: 49.35 / 35.22 - Debt-to-asset ratio: 62.1% - Price-to-earnings ratio: -55.57 - Largest shareholder: Qin Yinglin [3] Performance Highlights - The company achieved a stable growth in pig production, with 50.144 million pigs slaughtered in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. The annual target for pig production is expected to be between 66 million and 72 million [5] - The average selling price of pigs reached 18.89 yuan per kilogram in the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 23.23% [5] - The cost of pig farming has decreased to below 13.7 yuan per kilogram, down by 2.1 yuan since the beginning of the year, primarily due to lower feed prices [5] Financial Forecasts - Expected EPS for 2024-2026: 3.04 yuan, 2.87 yuan, 2.63 yuan respectively [6] - Revenue projections for 2023-2026: 110.861 billion, 129.472 billion, 126.252 billion, 125.578 billion [7] - Net profit projections for 2023-2026: -4.263 billion, 16.609 billion, 15.673 billion, 14.386 billion [7]