HEILAN HOME(600398) 开源证券·2024-10-31 14:42Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating despite weak Q3 performance, with a focus on future retail environment improvement and incremental business growth [2][4] Core Views - Q3 revenue declined by 11% YoY to 3.889 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders dropping by 64.9% to 271 million yuan, primarily due to weak offline sales and increased negative operating leverage from higher direct-operated store proportion [2] - Adjusted profit forecasts for 2024-2026, with expected net profits of 2.24/2.53/3.00 billion yuan, down from previous estimates of 2.78/2.94/3.22 billion yuan [2] - Current PE ratios for 2024-2026 are 12.2/10.8/9.1x, reflecting a cautious outlook on the retail environment [2] Main Brand Performance - Online revenue grew by 39% to 986 million yuan, but excluding the impact of Spozz consolidation and reclassification, actual revenue remained flat [2] - Offline revenue under pressure, with 5,872 stores as of Q3, a net decrease of 104 stores YoY and 36 stores QoQ, while direct-operated stores increased by 65 QoQ, raising the proportion of direct-operated stores to 23.5% [2] - Overseas revenue increased by 20% YoY to 230 million yuan, with 78 overseas stores as of Q3, up by 16 stores since the beginning of the year [2] Other Brands Performance - Other brands' revenue surged by 109.7% to 850 million yuan, driven by Spozz consolidation, with Spozz contributing 900-1,000 million yuan in revenue and a net profit margin of 15%-16% [2] - FCC project expanded rapidly, with nearly 400 stores opened by the end of October, and the Jiangyin Feima Water Town JD Outlet opened in September [2] Profitability and Inventory - Gross margin slightly declined by 1.1 percentage points to 42.8%, while net margin dropped by 11.0 percentage points to 12.3%, mainly due to increased sales expenses from direct-operated stores and higher online marketing costs [2] - Inventory surged by 53.47% to 12.334 billion yuan, driven by pre-holiday stockpiling, weak Q3 sales, and Spozz consolidation, with inventory turnover days increasing by 71 days to 346 days [2] Financial Summary and Valuation - Revenue for 2024E is projected at 20.668 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 2.235 billion yuan, reflecting a 24.3% YoY decline [3] - Gross margin for 2024E is expected to be 44.2%, with a net margin of 10.8% and ROE of 13.2% [3] - Current PE ratio stands at 12.2x for 2024E, with a PB ratio of 1.6x [3][4]