周大生：2024年三季报点评：24Q1-Q3自营业务增长良好，渠道扩张持续推进

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company has shown good growth in self-operated business and continues to expand its channels despite a decline in franchise revenue due to insufficient replenishment willingness from franchise clients [4][5]. - The company is focusing on product innovation and channel expansion, with projected revenues of 146.46 billion, 165.46 billion, and 182.62 billion yuan for 2024-2026, reflecting a year-on-year change of -10.1%, +13.0%, and +10.4% respectively [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 10.889 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.49%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 855 million yuan, down 21.95% [3]. - In Q3 2024, the revenue was 2.612 billion yuan, a significant decline of 40.91% year-on-year, while the net profit was 253 million yuan, an increase of 28.70% [3]. - The self-operated offline and e-commerce businesses experienced growth, with franchise business revenue declining by 19.75% year-on-year to 7.660 billion yuan for the first three quarters [4]. - The gross profit margin improved significantly, with a gross margin of 20.58% for the first three quarters, up 2.36 percentage points year-on-year, and 27.48% in Q3, up 9.70 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Channel Expansion - As of the end of Q3 2024, the company had a total of 5,235 brand terminal stores, with a net increase of 129 stores since the beginning of the year [5]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for the company's financial performance includes a net profit of 1.135 billion yuan in 2024, down 13.7% year-on-year, followed by increases of 16.5% and 12.1% in the subsequent years [6][8].