鹏鼎控股：三季度表现亮眼，期待AI Phone机型周期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported strong performance in Q3 2024, with expectations for the AI Phone model cycle [1] - The revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 23.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.97 billion yuan, up 7.1% year-on-year [1] - The single-quarter revenue for Q3 2024 was 10.36 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 60.9% [1] - The company anticipates a new innovation cycle driven by the iPhone series updates and AI systems, similar to past significant design changes that led to super model cycles [1] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s Q3 2024 gross margin was 23.6%, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.8 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.1 percentage points [1] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 11.5%, nearly flat year-on-year, despite increased financial expenses [1] - The report maintains previous profit forecasts, projecting net profits of 3.75 billion, 4.40 billion, and 4.79 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with corresponding EPS of 1.62, 1.90, and 2.06 yuan [1][2] Financial Indicators - The company’s operating income for 2023 is projected at 32.066 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.4%, followed by a recovery with expected growth of 12.0% in 2024 [2][5] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 21.3% in 2023 to 22.0% in 2024 [2][5] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 11.1% in 2023 to 11.8% in 2024 [2][5] Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - The operating cash flow for 2023 is reported at 7.969 billion yuan, with a forecasted decrease to 6.108 billion yuan in 2024 [3] - Total assets are projected to grow from 42.278 billion yuan in 2023 to 51.647 billion yuan by 2026 [4] - The company’s total liabilities are expected to remain stable, with a slight increase from 12.603 billion yuan in 2023 to 13.791 billion yuan in 2026 [4]