Guolian Sec(SH:601456) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-10-31 17:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guolian Securities with a target price raised to 14.05 CNY, corresponding to a 2024 price-to-book ratio of 2.2x [3][11]. Core Views - The company has shown improvement in its brokerage business, with a year-on-year increase in revenue despite market challenges. The third quarter of 2024 saw a significant profit increase, with net profit reaching 3.1 billion CNY, up 143.7% year-on-year [11]. - The acquisition of Minsheng Securities is progressing, which is expected to enhance the company's overall strength and market position, potentially placing it among the top 20 firms in the industry [11][10]. - The report highlights the effectiveness of talent investment and business transformation, leading to a positive growth trend in the brokerage segment, which is expected to outperform peers [11]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the company reported a revenue of 2,955 million CNY, a 12.7% increase from the previous year, while net profit was 671 million CNY, down 12.5% [9][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 0.24 CNY, with subsequent years showing slight increases to 0.26 CNY in 2025 and 0.29 CNY in 2026 [11][9]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 34,038 million CNY, with a current share price of 12.02 CNY [5][3]. Market Position and Trends - The report indicates that Guolian Securities has a market share of 0.5% in brokerage services, with a projected revenue growth rate of 2.1% in the brokerage business for 2023 [12][13]. - The company’s net asset return (ROE) for 2023 is reported at 3.7%, with expectations of slight recovery in the following years [13][11]. - The report notes a significant increase in investment income, which reached 5.5 billion CNY in Q3 2024, reflecting a 220% year-on-year growth [11].