泸州老窖：2024年三季报点评：符合预期，稳健为先

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Luzhou Laojiao [3][4] Core Views - Q3 performance met expectations, with a year-on-year increase in net profit margin. The company is expected to ease channel pressure and build a healthy growth trajectory [2][3] - The company has adjusted its EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to 9.70 CNY, 10.08 CNY, and 10.67 CNY respectively, reflecting a decrease from previous estimates due to weak liquor consumption demand and an ongoing inventory destocking cycle [3] - The target price has been lowered to 190 CNY, based on a PE ratio of 20X for 2024 [3] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 24.304 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, and a net profit of 11.593 billion CNY, up 9.7% year-on-year. The gross margin for the first three quarters was 88.4%, remaining stable year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 47.7%, down 0.5 percentage points [3] - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 7.4 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, and a net profit of 3.57 billion CNY, up 2.6% year-on-year [3] - The company’s contract liabilities at the end of Q3 2024 stood at 2.65 billion CNY, slightly up from the previous quarter but lower than the same period last year [3] Profitability Analysis - The sales gross margin for Q3 2024 was 88.1%, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the faster growth of mid-range products compared to the overall product mix [3] - The tax and additional rate was 9.4%, year-on-year stable, indicating a diminishing seasonal impact from consumption tax [3] - The final net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 48.2%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.9 percentage points, showcasing improved profitability [3] Market Outlook - The company is focused on solidifying its marketing and channel foundations in 2024, with a proactive adjustment to growth rates in response to market conditions [3] - The report anticipates a recovery in consumer demand, driven by enhanced engagement through bottle scanning technology [3]