Sinomine(SZ:002738) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-10-31 22:07Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][4]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 3.569 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.7%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 546 million yuan, down 73.6% year-on-year [3]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.148 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.3% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 11.4%, with a net profit of 73 million yuan, down 87.2% year-on-year and 66.4% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The report adjusts the EPS forecast for 2024-2026 to 1.31, 1.35, and 2.49 yuan respectively, considering various factors including lithium prices and smelting plant slag pile assessments [3]. - The target price is raised to 40.5 yuan based on a 30x PE valuation for 2025, reflecting the growth potential from the company's copper and smelting slag utilization businesses [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's gross margin was impacted by declining lithium prices, with the SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate price falling approximately 24.5% to 80,000 yuan per ton in Q3 2024, leading to a gross margin drop of about 22 percentage points to 22.5% [3]. - Financial expenses increased to 88 million yuan due to exchange losses from currency fluctuations [3]. Growth Opportunities - The acquisition of a 98% stake in the Tsumeb smelting plant in Namibia is expected to enhance profitability through the utilization of valuable metals such as germanium, gallium, and zinc found in the slag [3]. - The company is advancing the Kitumba copper mine project in Zambia, which has a copper metal reserve of 614,000 tons and an average grade of 2.2%. Plans are in place to develop a production capacity of 50,000 tons of copper metal per year by 2025 [3]. Market Data - The current stock price is 32.86 yuan, with a target price of 40.50 yuan, indicating potential upside [4]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 23.708 billion yuan and a total share capital of 721 million shares [5]. Financial Ratios - The company’s net asset per share is 16.52 yuan, with a current price-to-book ratio of 2.0 [6]. - The net debt ratio stands at -21.75%, indicating a strong balance sheet position [6]. Future Projections - Revenue is projected to recover to 4.991 billion yuan in 2025, with a significant increase to 7.794 billion yuan by 2026 [9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise to 974 million yuan in 2025 and 1.798 billion yuan in 2026 [9].