Guolian Sec(SH:601456) Soochow Securities·2024-10-31 22:37Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guolian Securities [1] Core Views - Guolian Securities reported a significant improvement in investment performance, with overall results continuing to improve [1] - The company's Q3 revenue increased by 31.26% year-on-year to 919 million yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 143.65% to 308 million yuan [1] - The report highlights the rapid recovery of the company's performance in Q3 against the backdrop of a rising equity market [4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 3,108 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.18% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 721 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth of 7.44% [1] - The report anticipates EPS of 0.20 yuan for 2024, with subsequent increases to 0.29 yuan in 2025 and 0.32 yuan in 2026 [4] Business Segments - Heavy Asset Business: - Self-operated business revenue in Q3 increased by 221% year-on-year to 554 million yuan, benefiting from improved market conditions [2] - Interest income showed a significant decline, with a net interest income of -129 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2024 [2] - Light Asset Business: - Brokerage business revenue increased by 2% year-on-year to 398 million yuan, although Q3 saw a decline due to low trading sentiment [3] - Asset management revenue surged by 65% year-on-year to 484 million yuan, driven by the acquisition of Zhongrong Fund [3] - Investment banking revenue decreased by 38% year-on-year to 264 million yuan, impacted by tightened regulations on equity financing [3] Valuation and Market Position - The report raises profit forecasts for 2024-2026, with net profits expected to be 721 million yuan, 1,030 million yuan, and 1,148 million yuan respectively [4] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a PB valuation of 1.87 for 2024, decreasing to 1.58 by 2026 [4]