Shanghai Geoharbour Construction (605598) 东吴证券·2024-10-31 23:30Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 940 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 24.5% to 110 million yuan [2] - The company is focusing on expanding its business in countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative, which may temporarily affect domestic revenue growth due to structural adjustments [2] - New contract signing remains at a historically high level, with a total of 1.87 billion yuan in new contracts signed from January to September 2024, including 690 million yuan in the third quarter [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2022 was 885.11 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 20.50%. For 2023, the revenue is projected to be 1,277.45 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 44.33% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2022 was 156.79 million yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 155.61%. The forecast for 2023 is 174.10 million yuan, showing an 11.04% growth [1] Profitability Metrics - The latest diluted EPS for 2022 was 0.64 yuan per share, with projections of 0.71 yuan for 2023 and 0.81 yuan for 2024 [1] - The P/E ratio based on the latest diluted EPS is 30.09 for 2022, decreasing to 27.10 for 2023 and further to 23.79 for 2024 [1] Cash Flow and Expenses - The company reported a net cash outflow from operating activities of 56.55 million yuan in Q3 2024, which is a significant increase in cash outflow compared to the previous year [2] - The company’s operating expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial expenses were 0.7%, 16.1%, 2.9%, and 0.7% respectively in Q3 2024, with management expenses showing a year-on-year increase [2] Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from high infrastructure demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, supported by its ability to secure overseas orders [2] - The report adjusts the net profit forecast for 2024-2026 to 200 million, 290 million, and 350 million yuan respectively, reflecting the impact of domestic performance decline and project delays [2]