Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory (SH:600809) Soochow Securities·2024-11-01 00:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 31.36 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.2%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.35 billion yuan, up 20.3% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 8.61 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.4% year-on-year growth, while the net profit for the quarter was 2.94 billion yuan, increasing by 10.4% year-on-year [2] - The company is focusing on maintaining a stable pricing strategy and channel confidence, opting not to aggressively push inventory despite a slowdown in sales growth [3] Revenue and Profitability - The company's liquor revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 17.5%, with a Q3 growth of 11.4%, indicating a shift from channel expansion to quality enhancement in southern markets [3] - The gross profit margin slightly decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 74.3% in Q3, attributed to changes in product mix [4] - The net profit margin in Q3 saw a minor decline of 0.3 percentage points, influenced by gross margin and management fee rate fluctuations [4] Financial Forecasts - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 12.42 billion, 14.20 billion, and 16.42 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 19%, 14%, and 16% [4] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a P/E ratio of 19, 17, and 15 times for 2024-2026 [4] Market Position and Strategy - The company has maintained a stable market presence in its home province while gradually expanding its dealer network, which increased to 4,368 dealers by the end of Q3 [3] - The product structure has shown some recovery in Q3, with balanced growth across different product lines [3]