NHPM(601882) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-11-01 00:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [2][9]. Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure on its performance in Q3 2024, with a decline in both revenue and net profit. However, there is an expectation for demand improvement in the future [1][2]. - The report highlights the company's strong position as a leader in the industrial mother machine sector, suggesting that its long-term growth potential remains intact despite current challenges [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast: The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3,389 million in 2024, with a growth rate of 2% year-on-year. This is expected to increase to 4,348 million by 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 15% [1][6]. - Net Profit Forecast: The net profit is expected to decline to 550 million in 2024, a decrease of 10% year-on-year, but is projected to recover to 760 million by 2026, with a growth rate of 19% [1][6]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): The EPS is forecasted to be 1.05 in 2024, down from 1.17 in 2023, but expected to rise to 1.46 by 2026 [1][6]. - Cash Flow: Operating cash flow is projected to be 402 million in 2024, with a gradual increase to 639 million by 2026 [5][6]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on domestic market share through import substitution and expanding its overseas presence. It aims to adapt its products to meet the needs of various international markets [1][2]. - The report notes that the company has established subsidiaries in Singapore and Thailand, which are expected to contribute to its growth in overseas markets [1][2]. Growth Drivers - The report identifies key growth drivers including the ongoing trend of import substitution in high-end CNC machine tools and the company's strategic initiatives to enhance its global marketing efforts [1][2]. - The company is also expected to benefit from the increasing restrictions on exports from developed countries to China, which may accelerate domestic substitution [1][2].