金宏气体：价格因素使得短期业绩承压

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting significant price appreciation in the next 6-12 months [2][8][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.9 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 380 million RMB, up 21.7% year-on-year. However, Q3 alone saw a revenue decline of 3.1% year-on-year and a net profit drop of 48.1% [2][4]. - The company operates in both bulk gas and electronic gas sectors, providing comprehensive gas solutions for semiconductor clients. The gas sales volume increased by 18.1% year-on-year [2][4]. - The overall gross margin decreased to 30.7% in Q3 2024, down 6.5 percentage points year-on-year, due to intensified market competition and price declines in some products [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: The company is projected to achieve net profits of 320 million RMB, 400 million RMB, and 530 million RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.66, 0.83, and 1.09 RMB [2][4]. - Revenue Growth Rates: The company expects revenue growth rates of 17.47% in 2024, 24.54% in 2025, and 20.00% in 2026 [4][5]. - Valuation Metrics: The projected P/E ratios are 29x for 2024, 24x for 2025, and 18x for 2026 [2][4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is one of the few in China that operates in both bulk and electronic gases, focusing on both horizontal and vertical market expansion [2][4]. - The revenue breakdown for gas segments shows that specialty gases account for 41.6%, bulk gases for 38.5%, on-site gas production for 11.3%, and fuel gases for 8.5% [2][4].