东方雨虹：2024年三季报点评：季度收入承压，渠道调整优化效果持续显现

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 21.699 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 14.44%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.277 billion yuan, down 45.73% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 6.48 billion yuan, a decline of 23.84% year-on-year, and net profit was 334 million yuan, down 67.23% year-on-year [2] - The company is facing pressure on quarterly revenue, but continues to optimize its channel structure in response to changing demand. The direct sales channel is expected to see a significant decline, while retail and engineering distribution channels maintain slight growth [2] - Gross margin remains relatively stable at 28.92% in Q3, with a slight year-on-year decrease. However, the expense ratio has increased significantly, reaching 18.5% in Q3, up 3.8 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the larger decline in revenue and relatively rigid sales and management expenses [2] - Operating cash flow has improved, with a net cash inflow of 839 million yuan in Q3, compared to a net outflow of 4.76 billion yuan in the same period last year. The company has made significant efforts in receivables collection, resulting in a notable decrease in accounts receivable and notes [3] - The company is actively adjusting its organizational structure to cover untapped markets and expand into non-real estate projects, which is expected to enhance operational quality. The market share in the waterproofing sector continues to rise, and there is potential for growth in non-real estate and non-waterproofing segments [3] Financial Forecasts - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 1.62 billion, 2.31 billion, and 2.76 billion yuan respectively, down from previous estimates of 1.93 billion, 2.65 billion, and 3.15 billion yuan. The corresponding P/E ratios are projected to be 21X, 15X, and 12X [3]