SHUNXIN AGRICULTURE(000860) Haitong Securities·2024-11-01 00:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's revenue has been impacted by business restructuring, leading to a continuous decline in income but an improvement in profit margins. The company reported total revenue of 7.317 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 16.9%, with a net profit of 382 million yuan, compared to a loss of 292 million yuan in the same period last year [4][6] - The report attributes the revenue decline primarily to the divestment of real estate operations, contraction in the meat business, and temporary pressure on liquor demand. The company's gross margin has improved due to structural adjustments, with gross margins increasing by 6.9 percentage points and 13.5 percentage points for the first three quarters and the third quarter of 2024, respectively [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 7.317 billion yuan, down 16.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 382 million yuan, compared to a loss of 292 million yuan in the same period last year. In Q3 2024, revenue was 1.630 billion yuan, down 37.2% year-on-year, with a net loss of 41 million yuan, an improvement from a loss of 211 million yuan in Q3 2023 [4][6] - The company’s revenue from the liquor and slaughtering sectors showed contrasting trends, with liquor revenue up 3.2% and slaughtering revenue down 36.6% in the first half of 2024 [4] Cost and Expenses - The report notes that the company's expense ratio increased by 2.5 percentage points to 25.4% in Q3 2024, with sales, management, and research expenses rising. However, the significant increase in gross margin has led to a reduction in net losses [5] Cash Flow and Receivables - The company's cash flow from sales was 1.979 billion yuan in Q3 2024, down 21.1% year-on-year, which was a smaller decline compared to the revenue drop. The net cash flow from operating activities was 110 million yuan, down 42.8% year-on-year, indicating a better performance relative to profit [5] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to have revenues of 8.957 billion yuan, 9.824 billion yuan, and 10.654 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 331 million yuan, 515 million yuan, and 656 million yuan. The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.45 yuan, 0.69 yuan, and 0.88 yuan for the same years [6][11] Valuation - The report assigns a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18-22 times for the company's liquor business, leading to a fair value range of 16.65-20.35 yuan per share [6][9]