卓越新能2024Q3点评：行业低谷致业绩承压，关注海外产能布局进度

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expectations of future growth driven by overseas capacity expansion [7] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 1.042 billion yuan in 2024Q3, a year-on-year increase of 47.01%, but net profit attributable to the parent company was -9 million yuan, a significant decrease of 755.36% year-on-year [1][4] - Despite the downturn in the biodiesel industry due to anti-dumping investigations, the company maintained relatively high capacity utilization and export volume [1][4] - The company's performance was impacted by increased transportation and storage costs, declining biodiesel prices in Europe, and temporary anti-dumping duties [1][4] - The company is actively responding to EU anti-dumping sanctions by expanding non-EU markets and increasing biodiesel applications in the marine fuel market [5] - The company is expected to see performance elasticity in 2025Q1 with the launch of its 100,000-ton capacity in Singapore [1][6] Financial Performance - In 2024Q1-3, the company achieved revenue of 2.974 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.19%, but net profit attributable to the parent company was 92 million yuan, a decrease of 39.66% year-on-year [4] - The company's gross profit margin in 2024Q3 was -1.59%, a decrease of 5.51 percentage points year-on-year and 7.79 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [5] - The company is expected to achieve net profit attributable to the parent company of 25 million yuan in 2024, 84 million yuan in 2025, and 176 million yuan in 2026 [6] Market and Industry Analysis - The company's revenue growth in 2024Q3 was driven by its adjustment of export models and the establishment of an independent sales network in Europe, which helped maintain export volume despite a 48.0% decline in China's biodiesel exports [4] - The company's sales model adjustment led to higher per-ton revenue as it now recognizes revenue based on EU terminal prices rather than FOB prices [4] - The company is expanding its domestic market applications in the bio-based chemical sector, with its natural fatty alcohol project expected to be completed and operational by the end of the year [5] Future Outlook - The company is expected to face performance pressure in 2024 due to the 25.4% temporary anti-dumping duty imposed on it and its subsidiary Xiamen Excellence [6] - The company's future growth is expected to be driven by its overseas capacity expansion, particularly the 100,000-ton capacity in Singapore, which is expected to be operational in 2025Q1 [6]