Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 8.77 CNY, indicating an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [6][4]. Core Views - The company experienced significant declines in net profit and revenue in Q3 2024, with a net profit of 0.22 million CNY, down 86.27% year-on-year. The total revenue for the first three quarters was 5.06 billion CNY, a decrease of 12.8% year-on-year [1][4]. - The report highlights the pressure on profitability due to falling prices in the glass and soda ash segments, but anticipates growth in the new materials sector, particularly TCO glass, as domestic and international collaborations progress [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.512 billion CNY, down 27.66% year-on-year, and a gross margin of 12.64%, which represents a decline of 7.82 percentage points year-on-year [1][3]. - The overall gross margin for the first three quarters was 17.87%, down 0.29 percentage points year-on-year, while the expense ratio remained stable at 10.0% [3]. - The company adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, lowering the expected net profit to 330.63 million CNY for 2024, 522.14 million CNY for 2025, and 659.55 million CNY for 2026 [4][5]. Market Conditions - The report notes a significant drop in the prices of glass products, with the price of 5mm float glass at approximately 76.5 CNY per heavy box, down 31.3% year-on-year. The soda ash price also fell to about 1860 CNY per ton, down 26.3% year-on-year [2][4]. - The inventory levels for producers have increased, with approximately 63.81 million heavy boxes in stock, up 23.99 million heavy boxes year-on-year, indicating a potential supply-demand imbalance [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the integration of the soda ash and glass industries, with a focus on enhancing profitability through product structure adjustments. The TCO glass segment is anticipated to see increased volume as domestic industrialization progresses [4][6].
金晶科技：传统玻璃/纯碱盈利承压，期待新材料板块放量