格力电器：业绩以稳步增长度过行业底部，Q4迎以旧换新拉动

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [5][3]. Core Views - The company has shown steady growth through the industry's bottom, with Q4 expected to benefit from a replacement program [1][3]. - The decline in revenue is primarily due to business restructuring, with air conditioning shipments facing demand pressure, but the replacement program is anticipated to boost Q4 shipments [2][3]. - The company's core business revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 is 132.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, while other business revenue has decreased by 45.3% [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 147.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.39%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 21.96 billion yuan, an increase of 9.3% [1][3]. - In Q3 2024, the operating revenue was 47.13 billion yuan, down 15.87% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.83 billion yuan, up 5.47% [1][3]. - The company's sales expense ratio for the first three quarters of 2024 was 6.9%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, indicating effective channel transformation [2][3]. - Inventory for the first three quarters of 2024 was 25.34 billion yuan, down 24.6% year-on-year, continuing a trend of decreasing inventory levels [2][3]. Future Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 31 billion yuan, 32.91 billion yuan, and 34.68 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 7.9x, 7.4x, and 7.0x [3][4].