宝丰能源：检修拖累业绩，不改稳健成长趋势

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price indicating a potential upside of over 20% within the next six months [4][13]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 was impacted by maintenance activities, leading to a year-on-year decline in net profit by 24.6% to 1.232 billion [1]. - Despite the Q3 setback, the company shows a robust growth trend with a year-to-date revenue increase of 18.99% to 24.275 billion and a net profit increase of 16.6% to 4.537 billion [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the upcoming production from its Inner Mongolia project, which will enhance its total capacity to 5.2 million tons per year, positioning it as a leader in the coal-to-olefins industry [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported a net profit of 1.232 billion, down 24.6% year-on-year and 35% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 24.275 billion, up 18.99% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.537 billion, up 16.6% year-on-year [1]. Sales and Pricing - Q3 sales volumes for polyethylene, polypropylene, and EVA were 25.05 thousand tons, 25.21 thousand tons, and 2.6 thousand tons, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decline of 10%, 17%, and 55% respectively, while year-on-year growth was noted for polyethylene and polypropylene at 28% and 53% [2]. - The average price for coal in Inner Mongolia was 654 yuan per ton, with a slight increase of 2 yuan per ton quarter-on-quarter, while the average prices for PE and PP were 8,947 yuan and 7,929 yuan per ton, showing a minor decrease [2]. Project Developments - The Inner Mongolia project is progressing well, with the first boiler successfully ignited on July 1, and the olefin unit's first middle inspection completed on October 14, which will significantly increase production capacity [3]. - The Xinjiang base project is also expected to create a long-term growth curve, with a projected profit advantage of around 1,500 yuan per ton compared to Ningxia due to lower coal prices and transportation costs [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company's net profit forecast for 2024 has been adjusted down to 7.2 billion due to Q3 maintenance and price declines in coking coal and coke, while the forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain at 14 billion and 15 billion respectively [3]. - As of October 30, 2024, the company's market value corresponds to P/E ratios of 16, 8, and 8 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 [3].