华熙生物：化妆品+管理变革拖累增长承压，期待拐点

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Viewpoints - The company's performance is under pressure due to adjustments in its cosmetics business and management reforms, leading to a decline in revenue and net profit [3] - The cosmetics segment is dragging down revenue growth, while the medical terminal business is growing rapidly, supported by new product launches [4] - Management reforms have increased administrative expenses, impacting net profit margins [4] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 530 million, 740 million, and 1 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 55x, 39x, and 29x [4] Business Performance Summary - Revenue for 24Q1-Q3 was 3.87 billion yuan, down 8.2% YoY, with net profit of 360 million yuan, down 29.6% YoY [3] - In 24Q3, revenue was 1.06 billion yuan, down 7.1% YoY, and net profit was 20 million yuan, down 77.4% YoY [3] - Gross margin for 24Q1-Q3 was 73.9%, up 1.3 percentage points YoY, while Q3 gross margin was 72.4%, down 0.4 percentage points YoY [4] - Sales expense ratio for 24Q1-Q3 was 42.1%, down 3.9 percentage points YoY, while administrative expense ratio increased by 3.3 percentage points to 10.9% [4] - R&D expense ratio for 24Q1-Q3 was 8.1%, up 1.5 percentage points YoY [4] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow from 5.75 billion yuan in 2024 to 7.58 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 14.7% [5] - Net profit is projected to increase from 532 million yuan in 2024 to 1 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 37.2% [5] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 1.10 yuan in 2024 to 2.08 yuan in 2026 [5] Business Segment Analysis - The raw materials business showed steady growth, driven by food-grade product expansion [4] - The medical terminal business grew rapidly, supported by new medical aesthetic products [4] - The cosmetics business faced challenges due to weak consumer demand and internal brand adjustments [4]