GUANGHUI ENERGY(600256) Xinda Securities·2024-11-01 01:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guanghui Energy (600256.SH) is "Buy," maintaining the previous rating of "Buy" [1]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance was impacted by maintenance in coal chemical facilities and a decline in coal prices, leading to a significant drop in revenue and profit [1]. - The Marang coal mine has received approval and is expected to significantly increase production in Q4, contributing to long-term growth [2][3]. - The company is actively pursuing strategic partnerships to enhance coal chemical projects and improve regional coal market capacity [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 26.391 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 46.76%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.003 billion yuan, down 58.72% [1]. - In Q3 2024, revenue was 9.143 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 36.87% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 26.85% [1]. - The company achieved coal production of 12.5353 million tons in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 130.95%, with total coal production for the first three quarters reaching 24.044 million tons, up 23.77% [1]. Production and Sales Summary - The company’s coal sales in Q3 2024 reached 12.8963 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 91.05% [1]. - LNG production in Q3 2024 was 11,867.80 million cubic meters, a decrease of 12.8% year-on-year, while LNG sales dropped by 35.7% [1]. - The company’s methanol production in Q3 2024 was 186,400 tons, down 16.23% year-on-year, with sales declining by 58.89% [2]. Future Outlook - The Marang coal mine is expected to ramp up production significantly in Q4 2024, with further production increases anticipated in 2025 [2][3]. - The company is investing in a 15 million tons/year coal quality utilization demonstration project to enhance local coal consumption capacity [4]. - The Zaisang oil and gas project is entering the trial production phase, with potential to develop a large-scale oil field [5]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are adjusted to 4.83 billion yuan, 6.41 billion yuan, and 7.56 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.74, 0.98, and 1.15 yuan [5].