WLY(SZ:000858) Wanlian Securities·2024-11-01 01:45Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a projected relative price increase of 5% to 15% compared to the market over the next six months [1][9]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated steady revenue and profit growth, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 8.60% and a net profit increase of 9.19% for the first three quarters of 2024 [3][4]. - The company is enhancing shareholder returns by increasing the cash dividend payout ratio to no less than 70% of the annual net profit, with a minimum of 20 billion yuan per year for 2024-2026 [4]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the high-end liquor market, with a strong brand moat and a high degree of certainty in earnings growth [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 67.916 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 24.931 billion yuan, both reflecting year-on-year growth [3]. - In Q3 alone, the company reported operating revenue of 17.268 billion yuan and a net profit of 5.874 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 1.39% and 1.34% [3]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 1.20 percentage points to 77.06%, while the net profit margin rose by 0.08 percentage points to 38.20% [4]. - In Q3, the gross margin improved by 2.77 percentage points to 76.18%, although the net profit margin slightly decreased by 0.06 percentage points to 35.41% [4]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 33.593 billion yuan, 37.273 billion yuan, and 41.226 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.20%, 10.95%, and 10.61% [5][4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 8.65 yuan, 9.60 yuan, and 10.62 yuan for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 17, 16, and 14 times [5][4].