GED(000539) GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2024-11-01 01:46Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to falling electricity prices, but there is continuous growth in clean energy [1][3]. - The company is a leading power provider in Guangdong Province, with short-term earnings limited by electricity price pressures, while long-term profitability is expected to recover as coal power costs stabilize [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 42.517 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.88%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.467 billion yuan, down 15.04% year-on-year [1]. - For Q3 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 16.439 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.35% year-on-year, and a net profit of 564 million yuan, down 35.18% year-on-year [1][2]. Electricity Generation - In Q3, the company generated 25.371 billion kWh from coal-fired power, a decline of 1.49% year-on-year, while gas-fired power generation increased by 31.5% to 7.869 billion kWh [2]. - The average on-grid electricity price for the first three quarters was 532.26 yuan per MWh, down 8.73% year-on-year, leading to a reduction in gross profit from power generation by 4.92 billion yuan [2]. Clean Energy Expansion - The company added 4.9439 million kW of clean energy capacity in the first three quarters of 2024, increasing the clean energy share to 46.34% [3]. - Wind and solar power generation in Q3 reached 833 million kWh and 678 million kWh, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 9.17% and 465% [3]. Future Projections - Expected operating revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 57.415 billion yuan, 63.205 billion yuan, and 69.183 billion yuan, respectively, with projected net profits of 1.357 billion yuan, 1.890 billion yuan, and 2.240 billion yuan [3][4]. - The report anticipates earnings per share (EPS) of 0.26 yuan, 0.36 yuan, and 0.43 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3][4].