海格通信：自主可控通信龙头，北斗+卫星打开发展新时代

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Haige Communication (002465 SZ) with a "Buy" rating, citing its leadership in autonomous and controllable communication and its strategic positioning in the BeiDou and satellite communication sectors [1] Core Views - Haige Communication is a leading player in China's military communication sector, with a comprehensive layout across the entire industrial chain of BeiDou communication terminals, from chips to systems and operations [1] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing penetration of BeiDou and satellite communication in both military and civilian markets, which opens up new growth opportunities [1] - The importance of communication security is rising globally, and China's robust communication infrastructure, including its autonomous BeiDou navigation system, provides a solid foundation for the development of domestic communication equipment [2] - Haige Communication has achieved significant growth in its BeiDou navigation business, with a 275% year-on-year increase in revenue in the first half of 2024, driven by accelerated domestic BeiDou adoption and breakthroughs in sectors like IoT, power, and energy [2] - The company is actively participating in China's satellite internet projects, with key products and terminals being selected for in-orbit testing, and is expanding its presence in the satellite communication market, including mobile phone and automotive applications [3] Financial Performance and Projections - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 5 616 million yuan in 2022 to 9 883 million yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15 2% [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 668 million yuan in 2022 to 1 285 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 17 9% [4] - The company's EPS is forecasted to grow from 0 27 yuan in 2022 to 0 52 yuan in 2026, with a corresponding P/E ratio decreasing from 41 6x to 21 6x over the same period [4] Industry and Market Analysis - The global communication security landscape is evolving, with a shift from purely military applications to both military and civilian uses, driven by incidents like the Lebanon communication device attack, which has heightened the importance of communication security [16] - The BeiDou navigation system has completed its third phase of deployment, enhancing its global coverage and performance, and is now entering a replacement cycle, which is expected to drive demand for BeiDou-compatible devices [30] - The satellite communication industry is rapidly developing, with low-earth orbit (LEO) satellites becoming a key focus, and China's satellite internet projects, such as the "StarNet" and "G60" constellations, are expected to create significant market opportunities [36] Company Strategy and Competitive Advantages - Haige Communication has a comprehensive layout in the BeiDou navigation industry, with a strong presence in both upstream chip development and downstream terminal products, giving it a competitive edge in the market [42] - The company is actively expanding its satellite communication capabilities, with a focus on ground equipment and upstream components, and has secured key positions in major national satellite internet projects [45] - Haige Communication's wireless communication business covers a wide range of frequencies and applications, making it a key player in the military communication sector, with significant potential for growth as defense informatization progresses [46] Valuation and Investment Recommendation - The report values Haige Communication at a 2024 P/E ratio of 36x, based on projected net profits of 768 million yuan, 1 059 million yuan, and 1 285 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [51] - Compared to industry peers, Haige Communication's valuation is considered conservative, with an average industry P/E of 89 71x, suggesting potential upside for the stock [51]