益生股份：种苗涨价逐步兑现，看好后续盈利弹性

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company has seen a gradual realization of price increases in its seed products, which is expected to enhance profitability in the future [2]. - The sales of parent stock have significantly contributed to profits, while the sales volume of commercial stock has decreased but prices have increased [2]. - The report projects an upward adjustment in earnings expectations for 2024-2026, forecasting net profits of 548 million, 613 million, and 691 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.3%, 12%, and 12.7% [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenues of 2.154 billion, a decrease of 18.98% year-on-year, and a net profit of 301 million, down 56.04% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2024, revenues were 778 million, a decrease of 3.36% year-on-year, with a net profit of 118 million, down 0.94% year-on-year [1]. - The estimated sales of commercial stock chicks were approximately 420 million, down 14% year-on-year, with an average selling price of 3.1 yuan per chick [2]. - The estimated sales of parent stock chicks were about 9 million sets, down 22% year-on-year, with an average selling price of approximately 39 yuan per set [2]. - The report indicates a significant increase in the price of parent stock chicks, reaching 70 yuan per set in October, which is expected to enhance the company's profitability in Q4 [2]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 3.032 billion, 4.090 billion, and 4.278 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of -6.0%, 34.9%, and 4.6% [4]. - The projected net profits for the same years are 548 million, 613 million, and 691 million, with growth rates of 1.3%, 12.0%, and 12.7% [4]. - The report anticipates an EPS of 0.50, 0.55, and 0.62 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4].