濮耐股份：主业持续探底，新拓业务放量可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company's main business continues to decline, but new business ventures are expected to ramp up [1] - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 4.003 billion, a slight decrease of 1.19% year-on-year, and a net profit of 123 million, down 40.81% year-on-year [1] - The domestic refractory materials market is facing challenges due to a downturn in the steel industry, while overseas operations are expected to partially offset domestic profit declines [1] - The acquisition of a high-grade magnesia mine in Tibet is anticipated to become a significant profit growth point for the company [1] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.003 billion, with a net profit of 123 million, and a non-recurring net profit of 77.07 million, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 60.32% [1] - The Q3 revenue was 1.305 billion, down 8.11% year-on-year, marking the first quarterly loss since 2022 [1] - The overall gross margin for Q3 was 17.73%, a decrease of 2.67 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising raw material costs and pricing pressures from downstream customers [1] - The company’s expense ratio for Q3 was 19.04%, an increase of 4.26 percentage points year-on-year, with significant increases in financial expenses due to exchange losses [1] Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to have net profits of 150 million, 290 million, and 510 million for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 27X, 14X, and 8X [1][2] - The report highlights three key points: continuous market share growth in domestic refractory materials, gradual contributions from overseas markets, and the imminent ramp-up of the second growth curve [1]