lu'an EED(601699) 国盛证券·2024-11-01 01:46Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][3]. Core Views - The company's performance has been negatively impacted by rising costs and declining coal prices, leading to a significant drop in net profit [3][2]. - The company has secured coal exploration rights in the Xiangyuan County, which will enhance its sustainable development by increasing coal reserves [3][2]. - Due to the significant decline in coking coal prices, the earnings forecast for the company has been revised downwards for 2024-2026 [3][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenues of 26.649 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 19.28%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.798 billion, down 61.51% [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 572 million, which is a 39.09% decrease from the previous quarter and a 71.03% decrease year-on-year [1]. - The average selling price of coal in Q3 2024 was 624 yuan per ton, down 13.2% year-on-year and 7.8% quarter-on-quarter, while the cost per ton increased to 385 yuan, up 8.3% year-on-year and 5.3% quarter-on-quarter [3][2]. Production and Sales Summary - In Q3 2024, the company's raw coal production was 14.8 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9% but an increase of 2.6% from the previous quarter [2]. - The total coal sales volume in Q3 2024 was 13.52 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.1% [2]. - The company has seen a recovery in production and sales due to easing safety supervision pressures [2]. Future Earnings Forecast - The expected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 3.525 billion, 4.873 billion, and 5.319 billion respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.0X, 9.4X, and 8.6X [3][4].