Semir(SZ:002563) GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2024-11-01 01:46Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [5][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue growth of 6% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, reaching 9.4 billion yuan, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 9% to 760 million yuan [1]. - In Q3 2024, revenue increased by 3% year-on-year to 3.44 billion yuan, but net profit fell significantly by 36% to 200 million yuan [2]. - The company is expected to achieve stable revenue growth in 2024, with projected net profits of 1.103 billion yuan, 1.285 billion yuan, and 1.409 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5][6]. Revenue and Profitability - For the first three quarters of 2024, the gross profit margin improved by 0.6 percentage points to 44.8%, while the net profit margin decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 8.0% [1]. - The company’s operating cash flow showed a net outflow of 370 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, with accounts receivable turnover days increasing by 3.2 days to 37.8 days [4]. Channel Performance - E-commerce channels are performing better than offline channels, with an estimated increase in e-commerce revenue share due to product structure optimization [3]. - The company continues to expand its store network, with a net increase of 151 stores in the children's clothing segment and 52 stores in the adult casual wear segment by the end of H1 2024 [4]. Brand Performance - The children's clothing segment is expected to outperform the adult clothing segment, with steady growth in all-channel revenue for children's clothing [4]. - The adult casual wear segment is projected to show slightly weaker performance compared to children's clothing in Q3 2024 [4]. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 14.615 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7% [6]. - The expected P/E ratio for 2024 is 16 times, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical performance [5][6].