山西汾酒：业绩稳健，韧性凸显

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu [4] Core Views - Shanxi Fenjiu demonstrates robust performance with revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 reaching CNY 31.36 billion and CNY 11.35 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 17.2% and 20.3% respectively [1] - The company shows strong cash flow improvement, with operating cash flow increasing by 67.2% year-on-year in Q3 2024 [1] - The report highlights the company's ability to navigate through economic cycles due to its strong brand, operational efficiency, and product diversity [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, revenue and net profit were CNY 8.61 billion and CNY 2.94 billion, with year-on-year growth of 11.4% and 10.4% respectively [1] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 76.0%, with a slight increase in net margin to 36.2% [2] - The company’s high-end liquor revenue growth accelerated in Q3 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 6.7% [2] Market Expansion - Revenue from domestic and international markets for the first three quarters of 2024 was CNY 11.90 billion and CNY 19.35 billion, with growth rates of 11.6% and 21.4% respectively [3] - The number of distributors increased to 4,368 by the end of Q3 2024, up by 172 from Q2 2024 [3] Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the earnings forecast for 2024-2026, projecting diluted EPS of CNY 10.23, CNY 11.77, and CNY 13.40 respectively [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 19, 17, and 15 times for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [3] Stock Information - The closing price on October 30 was CNY 197.10, with a total market capitalization of CNY 240.45 billion [4]