凯盛新能：Q3业绩触底，关注供给侧产能出清

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance has hit a low point, with significant declines in revenue and profit due to an imbalance in supply and demand in the photovoltaic glass industry [2][4]. - The report highlights that the industry is experiencing severe price drops, leading to increased losses for the company, and anticipates continued pressure on profitability in the upcoming quarters [2][4]. - There is a potential for gradual recovery in supply-demand dynamics, with expectations of supply-side reforms that may help stabilize prices in the photovoltaic glass market [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenues of 3.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -250 million yuan, a decline of 225.0% [1]. - In Q3 alone, the company generated revenues of 720 million yuan, down 63.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of -210 million yuan, reflecting a 429.4% year-on-year decline [1][2]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 2.0%, down 9.5 percentage points year-on-year, with Q3 gross margin at -18.8%, a decrease of 31.5 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The report projects net profits for 2024-2026 to be -433 million yuan, 65 million yuan, and 178 million yuan respectively, indicating a challenging recovery path [4][5]. Industry Context - The photovoltaic glass industry is facing a significant inventory buildup, with the inventory days exceeding 38 days as of the end of October, and the company's inventory reached 1.25 billion yuan, up 57.8% year-on-year [2]. - The average prices for photovoltaic glass have dropped significantly, with Q3 prices for 2.0mm and 3.2mm glass down 25.0% and 12.7% year-on-year, respectively [2]. - The report notes that the industry's production capacity is being adjusted, with a reduction in daily melting capacity from 116,500 tons to 95,300 tons, indicating a slow recovery in supply-demand balance [4].