Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory (SH:600809) Huaxin Securities·2024-11-01 02:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH) [1] Core Views - The company's performance meets expectations, showing resilient growth with a slight adjustment in product structure [1] - Revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 reached 31.358 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.25%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.350 billion yuan, up 20.34% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin and net margin for Q1-Q3 2024 were 76.03% and 36.23%, respectively, indicating stable profitability with slight improvements [1] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - Q3 2024 total revenue was 8.611 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 2.940 billion yuan, up 10.36% year-on-year [1] - Operating cash flow for Q1-Q3 2024 was 11.435 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 56.56% [1] Product Structure Adjustment - Revenue from mid-to-high-end products and other liquor categories for Q1-Q3 2024 was 22.614 billion yuan and 8.638 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 14.26% and 26.87% [1] - The company is expected to form a "four-wheel drive" product series, enhancing professional personnel allocation and operational promotion for different product lines [1] Market Performance - Revenue from direct sales, agents, and e-commerce channels for Q1-Q3 2024 was 0.179 billion yuan, 29.301 billion yuan, and 1.772 billion yuan, showing year-on-year changes of -47.87%, +17.44%, and +35.64%, respectively [2] - The company has increased its total number of distributors to 4,368, up by 428 since the beginning of 2024 [2] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 10.05, 11.18, and 12.61 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 20, 18, and 16 times [3] - The company is expected to maintain stable growth driven by product differentiation and channel efficiency improvements [3]