Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [1] Core Views - The company's profit significantly increased due to the rise in prices of electrolytic aluminum and alumina, with the average selling prices for self-produced aluminum ingots and alumina rising approximately 6% and 30% year-on-year, respectively [1][3] - The company is advancing key projects, including the large-scale mining of bauxite in Guinea, which is expected to enhance raw material self-sufficiency for alumina production [1][2] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 7.011 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.12%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.010 billion yuan, an increase of 63.48% [1] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 20.796 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.93%, and a net profit of 3.084 billion yuan, up 88.36% year-on-year [1] - The company plans to distribute a mid-term cash dividend of 2 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 920 million yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 30% [1] Price Trends - In Q3 2024, the average price of A00 aluminum was 19,565 yuan per ton, up 3.76% year-on-year, while the average price of alumina was 3,844 yuan per ton, up 25.25% year-on-year [1] Future Projections - The company forecasts operating revenues of 32.536 billion, 34.484 billion, and 37.649 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits projected at 4.266 billion, 4.548 billion, and 4.846 billion yuan [3][5] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 9.0 for 2024, 8.5 for 2025, and 7.9 for 2026, indicating a favorable valuation given the expected price stability of electrolytic aluminum and alumina [3]
天山铝业:公司事件点评报告:重点项目有序推进,静待铝土矿增量逐步兑现