CBC(SH:600132) Minsheng Securities·2024-11-01 02:10Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company reported total revenue of 13.063 billion yuan and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.332 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, showing a slight increase in revenue but a decrease in net profit compared to the previous year [3] - The demand recovery is slow, with a decline in sales volume due to high base effects and adverse weather conditions in key sales regions [3] - The company is actively exploring high-end products in non-consumption channels and expects a recovery in demand [3] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.202 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.11% year-on-year, and a net profit of 431 million yuan, down 10.10% year-on-year [3] - The average selling price per ton decreased by 2.44% to 4,677 yuan, reflecting weak downstream demand [3] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 49.17%, down 1.35 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased costs and reduced scale effects [3] Product and Regional Performance - Revenue from high-end, mainstream, and economy beers in Q3 2024 was 2.362 billion yuan, 1.590 billion yuan, and 132 million yuan respectively, with high-end and mainstream beers experiencing declines [3] - The company’s revenue in the Northwest, Central, and Southern regions for Q3 2024 was 1.121 billion yuan, 1.793 billion yuan, and 1.170 billion yuan, showing year-on-year declines of 10.48%, 5.23%, and 9.28% respectively [3] Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenue growth of 0.7%, 3.1%, and 2.5% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profit expected to decline slightly in 2024 before recovering in subsequent years [4][6] - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, with a historical payout rate of 83% to 101% from 2021 to 2023 [3][4]