lu'an EED(601699) 民生证券·2024-11-01 02:10Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is adjusted to "Cautious Recommendation" [3] Core Views - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2024 is 2.798 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 61.51%, with operating revenue of 26.649 billion yuan, down 19.28% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 8.995 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 19.19%, and a net profit of 572 million yuan, down 71.03% year-on-year [1] - The overall coal production for the first three quarters of 2024 is 42.47 million tons, a decrease of 4.82% year-on-year, with a comprehensive coal price of 662.15 yuan/ton, down 12.3% year-on-year [1] - The company is expected to have net profits of 3.615 billion yuan, 3.833 billion yuan, and 4.207 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.21 yuan, 1.28 yuan, and 1.41 yuan per share [2][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported a coal production of 14.8 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.86%, while the coal sales volume was 13.52 million tons, an increase of 1.81% year-on-year [1] - The comprehensive gross profit from coal business for Q3 2024 was 3.239 billion yuan, down 33.01% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 38.4%, a decrease of 12.2 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company's total revenue for 2023 is projected at 43.137 billion yuan, with a significant decline expected in 2024 [4] Cost and Pricing - The comprehensive cost of coal is 376.12 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.6% year-on-year, while the cost per ton in Q3 2024 is 384.69 yuan, up 8.26% year-on-year [1] - The average selling price of coal in Q3 2024 is 624.28 yuan/ton, down 13.23% year-on-year [1] Future Outlook - The company is facing challenges due to weak demand for its main product, pulverized coal, leading to a cautious outlook for the next few years [1][2] - The projected PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 13, 12, and 11 respectively, indicating a declining trend in valuation [2][4]