阳光电源：费用管控成效初现，年末确收有望加速

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 49.9 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.6%, with a net profit of 7.6 billion RMB, up 5.2% year-on-year [1] - The inventory increased significantly, reaching 32.2 billion RMB by the end of Q3 2024, indicating a potential acceleration in revenue recognition due to the peak delivery season for energy storage and power station projects [1] - The company has begun to see the effects of cost control, with a reduction in expense ratios in Q3 compared to the first half of the year, suggesting further improvements in profitability [2] - The company has applied for Global Depositary Receipts (GDR), aiming to raise 4.88 billion RMB to enhance its production capacity for energy storage products and inverters, which will strengthen its global competitiveness [3] Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 18.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.8%, while net profit decreased by 8.0% year-on-year [1] - The operating cash flow showed a significant improvement, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 3.4 billion RMB in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 3.6 billion RMB [2] Financial Forecast - The report adjusts the net profit forecast for 2024-2026 to 11.9 billion RMB, 14.9 billion RMB, and 18.0 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16, 13, and 10 [3] - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with revenue projected to reach 90.0 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 24.6% [5] Cost Management - The company has improved its cost management, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios decreasing in Q3 compared to the first half of the year, indicating effective cost control measures [2] - The overall expense ratio is expected to further decline as revenue recognition accelerates in Q4 [2]