SDIC Power(600886) 国金证券·2024-11-01 02:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guotou Electric Power is "Buy" (maintained) [1][3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 44.4 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 6.35 billion yuan, up 5.4% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 17.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, but the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 2.7% to 2.63 billion yuan [1] - Improved water inflow and installed capacity growth are expected to drive continued performance growth, despite a decrease in renewable energy prices [2][3] Summary by Sections Operating Analysis - Hydropower: Significant improvement in water inflow for the Yalong River in Q3 2024, contributing to a 22.7% year-on-year increase in on-grid electricity generation to 36.83 billion kWh [2] - Electricity Price: The average on-grid electricity price in Q3 2024 was 0.278 yuan/kWh, down 1.1% year-on-year, with a notable reduction in the price drop compared to the previous quarter [2] - Thermal Power: On-grid electricity generation decreased by 5.8% year-on-year to 15.1 billion kWh, with regional disparities in demand affecting performance [2] Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 7.61 billion, 8.42 billion, and 9.18 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.02, 1.13, and 1.23 yuan [3] - The current stock price corresponds to PE valuations of 15x, 14x, and 13x for the respective years [3]