CMES(601872) 国泰君安·2024-11-01 02:42Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][4]. Core Views - The company's diversified business layout ensures stable profitability across cycles. In Q3 2024, the dry bulk business profits offset fluctuations in oil transportation, with core profits remaining flat year-on-year, which is better than market expectations. The report anticipates an upward trend in oil transportation market conditions in the coming years, which will benefit the company [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10%. In Q3 2024 alone, the net profit was 870 million yuan, down 12% year-on-year. The main business profit remained stable, while exchange rate fluctuations and reduced government subsidies led to a decline in performance [4][5]. - The company’s dry bulk business saw a year-on-year profit increase of 75% in Q3 2024, while oil transportation profits were 390 million yuan, down 12% year-on-year. The container shipping segment benefited from market recovery, achieving a net profit of 230 million yuan, a 33% increase year-on-year [4][5]. Business Segments Overview - Oil Transportation: The oil transportation market faced pressure in Q3 2024 due to geopolitical oil prices, with a significant drop in freight rates. However, the company’s VLCC charter rates continued to outperform the industry [4]. - Dry Bulk: The dry bulk business showed resilience with a profit increase of 75% year-on-year in Q3 2024, reflecting a favorable market environment [4]. - Container Shipping: The segment benefited from the rerouting of shipping routes, leading to a profit increase of 33% year-on-year in Q3 2024 [4]. - LNG & Roll-on/Roll-off: This segment maintained stable profitability with a net profit of 230 million yuan in Q3 2024 [4]. Future Outlook - The report projects net profits of 6 billion yuan, 7.4 billion yuan, and 8.3 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, maintaining a target price of 10.70 yuan [4][5].