HEILAN HOME(600398) 东吴证券·2024-11-01 02:44Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a challenging Q3 performance with revenue of 15.259 billion yuan, down 1.99% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.908 billion yuan, down 22.19% year-on-year. The decline in revenue and net profit was attributed to weak terminal consumption [1] - The main brand and group purchase business faced pressure, while other brands showed high growth due to the consolidation of Sporz. The main brand's revenue in Q3 decreased by 26.5% year-on-year, and group purchase revenue fell by 37.1% year-on-year. However, there is an expectation for improvement in Q4 [1] - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 from 27.2 billion, 30.3 billion, and 33.4 billion yuan to 25.1 billion, 31.3 billion, and 34.6 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 12, 9, and 8 times [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 15.259 billion yuan, with quarterly revenues showing a trend of +8.72% in Q1, -5.88% in Q2, and -11.01% in Q3. Net profit for the same period was 1.908 billion yuan, with quarterly net profits of +10.41% in Q1, -14.42% in Q2, and -64.88% in Q3 [1] - The gross profit margin in Q3 was 42.81%, down 1.11 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in overall discounts amid weak terminal sales [1] Brand and Channel Performance - The main brand's revenue in Q3 decreased by 26.5% year-on-year, while the group purchase business saw a 37.1% decline. Other brands, particularly Sporz, experienced a 110% increase in revenue due to consolidation [1] - Online revenue grew by 40% year-on-year in Q3, while offline revenue fell by 26%. The increase in online sales was mainly driven by Sporz's contribution [1] Inventory and Cash Flow - As of Q3 2024, inventory reached 12.334 billion yuan, up 53.5% year-on-year, with inventory turnover days increasing by 71 days to 346 days. The increase in inventory was attributed to the consolidation of Sporz [1] - The net cash flow from operating activities in Q3 was -1.97 billion yuan, primarily due to reduced sales cash receipts and increased cash outflows for Sporz's inventory purchases [1]