AVIC XAC(000768) 国金证券·2024-11-01 02:46Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking it as the first coverage [2]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading manufacturer of large and medium-sized military and civilian aircraft, benefiting from both military and civilian aviation growth [2][3]. - The company has shown steady revenue growth from 26.1 billion to 40.3 billion RMB from 2016 to 2023, with a CAGR of 6.4%, and net profit growth from 413 million to 861 million RMB, with a CAGR of 11.1% [2][26]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is the only large and medium-sized military and civilian aircraft manufacturing base in China, with over 60 years of experience in the aviation manufacturing industry [2][17]. - It has transitioned from component manufacturing to complete aircraft development and production, benefiting from strategic military construction [2][17]. Investment Logic - The company is the sole platform for military large and medium-sized aircraft, with long-term capital expenditures expected to enter a harvest phase [3]. - The demand for large and medium-sized aircraft is critical for building a strategic air force, with the U.S. military's procurement plans serving as a reference [3]. - The company’s products, including transport and bomber aircraft, are expected to enter a phase of increased production, driving revenue growth [3]. - The company is a core supplier for civilian aircraft, particularly benefiting from the high demand in the civil aviation market [3]. - The company is involved in the production of key components for the C919 and ARJ21 aircraft, which are expected to ramp up production significantly [3][17]. - The company has launched an employee stock incentive plan to enhance operational efficiency and align employee interests with long-term growth [3]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 45.46 billion, 51.88 billion, and 59.26 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.79%, 14.14%, and 14.22% [3][6]. - The net profit is expected to reach 1.00 billion, 1.18 billion, and 1.39 billion RMB for the same years, with growth rates of 16.39%, 17.47%, and 18.26% [3][6]. - The report sets a target price of 38.08 RMB for 2025, based on a PE ratio of 90x, reflecting the company's unique position in China's aviation equipment sector [3].