hbky(600985) Great Wall Securities·2024-11-01 02:48Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [12]. Core Views - The company is a major coking coal enterprise in East China with rich resource reserves and excellent coal quality, benefiting from a favorable location [4]. - The company is deepening its business layout and continuously promoting the integration of the coal and coal chemical industry chain [4]. - Ongoing projects are progressing steadily, indicating potential for capacity growth [4]. - The company is expected to achieve operating revenues of 72.87 billion, 74.38 billion, and 75.98 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with net profits of 5.26 billion, 5.76 billion, and 6.20 billion yuan respectively [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first nine months of 2024, the company's coal business sales revenue was 13.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.96% [2]. - The company's coal production for the first nine months of 2024 was 15.67 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.43%, while sales volume was 11.88 million tons, down 13.90% year-on-year [2]. - The average selling price of coal in the third quarter was 1,115 yuan per ton, a year-on-year decrease of 7.03% [2]. - The gross profit per ton of coal was 559 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.93% [2]. Key Financial Metrics - The company's operating income for 2023 is projected at 73.39 billion yuan, with a net profit of 6.23 billion yuan [5]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 14.3% in 2023 to 12.0% in 2024 [7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 1.95 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.9x [4][6].