EXPL(SZ:002096) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-11-01 02:49Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][4]. Core Views - The company's third-quarter performance showed a slight decline due to increased R&D expenses, but revenue growth in a declining industry demonstrates the company's strong resilience as a market leader [2][3]. - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.60, 0.70, and 0.79 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a target price set at 15.35 yuan [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 6.303 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.29%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 524 million yuan, up 10.68% year-on-year [3]. - In the third quarter alone, the company reported operating revenue of 2.389 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.56% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.78%. The net profit for the same period was 173 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.14% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 19.91% [3]. - The report notes that the decline in quarterly net profit was primarily due to a one-time R&D expense of 131 million yuan, which increased by 36 million yuan quarter-on-quarter [3]. Industry Outlook - The report highlights that policy initiatives aimed at boosting infrastructure investment are expected to benefit the civil explosives industry. Recent government policies have accelerated the development of clean energy projects, which may further stimulate demand for civil explosives [3]. - Catalysts for growth include accelerated downstream infrastructure investment and industry consolidation [3].